Crispin Weston (crispinw@dircon.co.uk)
Thu, 9 Sep 1999 09:17:11 +0100
From: "Crispin Weston" <crispinw@dircon.co.uk> Subject: Predictability Date: Thu, 9 Sep 1999 09:17:11 +0100
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David writes:
<<I would argue that the website link above illustrates the ifets social
context with 1999 almost 3/4 done. If less than 50% of ifets listerners and
lurkers knew and used this linkage would it disallow/disprove *social
accepatnace?*>>
I think you are tilting at windmills here. I am really not very interested
in social acceptance: it is my post-modernist interlocutors who seem to
think that truth is a socially based construct and therefore that social
acceptance is important. The point I was making, by way of concession, was
that in order to be useful, something must presumably be useful *to someone*
and that needs *are* defined by context, social and otherwise. Could you
describe your link - however good - as *useful* if no-one ever has or ever
will *use* it?
But while the existence of a requirement is necessary to the existence of
utility, it is clearly not sufficient. What is also required is a power of
prediction. It is the power of prediction which I have asserted is *not* a
social construct.
Martin says:
<<the utility of a prediction is also a social construct>>
As explained above, I do not quarrel with this. What I assert is that the
power to predict itself is not a social construct.
Martin comments on the erudition of my question but chooses not to answer
it. Instead he re-asserts his position.
<<Predictions remain useful as long as we think they are useful.>>
So if I predict that swallowing arsenic will cure my flu, then so long as I
believe this prediction to be useful, it *is*?
<<One person's optimism/pessimism is another person's irrationality>>
Optimism/pessimism are characteristics which distort prediction and are
therefore always irrational. If I go to the doctor I don't want an
optimistic or pessimistic diagnosis - I want a dispassionate and correct
diagnosis. Of course an irrational prediction might turn out to be true, but
reliable predictions will be based on rational evidence rather than
emotional guesswork.
<<the Universal "truths" *we are told* (Crispin's emphasis) of in the US
are autonomy, individual liberty and the persuit of hapiness; whereas in
many Asian communities *we are told* (Crispin's emphasis) it is family
responsibility and respect for the elders.>>
You shouldn't believe everything you are told, Martin. To describe what are
clearly culturally defined ethics as 'universal truths' is obviously just
empty rhetoric . Don't discredit an argument by foisting on it your own
faulty examples.
Crispin Weston
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