Bob Leamnson (RLEAMNSON@umassd.edu)
Thu, 22 Apr 1999 10:26:51 -0400 (EDT)
Date: Thu, 22 Apr 1999 10:26:51 -0400 (EDT) From: Bob Leamnson <RLEAMNSON@umassd.edu> Subject: The Future
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"Leamnson's Crystal Ball"
Having taken the clairvoyants to task in a previous posting, I'm
embarrassed to now join them. But it's entirely too much fun to
resist. Here's what's going to happen in the next half century.
Year 2010
The quality of education attained by graduates of accredited
Distance Learning Centers (DLCs) has now reached that of On Site
Institutions (OSIs). (Average age of graduates of DLCs is 12.3
years higher than that at OSIs.)
Year 2015
Employers agree! Would prefer graduates of DLCs to those
from OSIs.
Year 2020
Parents, guidance counselors, and students follow the money
trail. Enrollment at DLCs soars. OSIs hustling to find students.
(Average age of DLC graduates five years higher than at OSIs)
Year 2025
Many OSIs close doors. Desperate (or imaginative) ones open
at noon and go until 9:00 p.m. to accommodate "returning
students" who like libraries and teachers. (No significant difference
between average ages of DLC and OSI students.)
Year 2030
Degrees issued by DLCs reaches all-time high. First reports of
some slippage in performance standards. Remaining OSIs hanging
on. (Average age of students enrolled at DLCs now two years less
than at OSIs)
Year 2035
Study shows that many DLCs have become "diploma mills."
Employers complain of spending many millions of dollars to "re-
train" graduates. Congress mounts investigation.
Year 2040
Congress passes multi-billion dollar educational reform package.
Educators look for new paradigm. State U. announces construction
of new dormitory.
Other matters:
Tom Abeles' reference to the Vonnegut book and the "leveling"
process reminded me of a saying that supposedly came out of
Communist China: "The stake that sticks above the rest will be
pounded down." That, and Dennis Nelson's posting, reminded me
also of another book, "Easy Travel to Other Planets" by Ted
Mooney. In it, there was a world-wide debilitating disease called
"information sickness." Dennis' penetrating thoughts on wisdom,
and the inability to "access" it made me wonder. Will extraordinary
skill in accessing information lead to wisdom--an ability to make
some sense of it all--or to "information sickness?"
Bob Leamnson
UMass Dartmouth
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